[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 20 09:50:29 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours,
with no significant flares. Similar conditions are expected for
the next 2 days with no major active regions currently on disc.
New region 816 that rotated on disc today is small and is magnetically
simple. A equatorial positioned coronal hole is expected to rotate
into geoeffective position in the next 24-36 hours. The solar
wind velocity ranged between 360km/s and 400km/s, while Bz has
fluctuated between -5nT and neutral over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 2112 3211
Darwin 6 2112 3212
Learmonth 5 2112 3111
Culgoora 7 -311 3211
Canberra 7 2122 3211
Hobart 4 2121 2112
Casey(Ant) 10 3--2 3221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1311 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 12 Unsettled
21 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the
last 24 hours. These conditions are expected to continue for
the next 2 days with an possible increase Active conditions
due to anticipated elevated solar wind stream parameters from
a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF Propagation is expected to be normal for the next 24
hrs. High and Mid latitudes have experienced disturbed periods
over the last 24 hours which may continue.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct 20 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
21 Oct 20 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
22 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The equatorial ionosphere conditions improved over the
last 24 hours with only slight depressions observed. Mid latitudes
appeared to be affected more so with depressed overnight periods.
High latitudes continue to be moderately disturbed. Similar conditions
for all regions are epxected for the next 24 hours with the southward
leaning behaviour of Bz.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 79700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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