[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 19 09:55:49 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the day with no
significant flares. Activity is expected to continue at low levels
over the next 24-48 hours. AR815 is declining and has low magnetic
complexity (alpha). The previous active region seen emerging
on the limb in SOHO spacecraft images is now on the solar disc
and looks to be subdued and unlikely to produce significant flares.
A region of high coronal activity on the south-west limb sould
rotate out of geoffective position. The solar wind velocity slowly
rose from 320 to 380km/sec but is not exceptional. The IMF Bz
fluctated around zero for most of the day, ending the extended
period of merging with the geomagnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 2211 2221
Darwin 5 2111 2221
Learmonth 8 -311 2321
Culgoora 5 3111 221-
Canberra 5 1221 2211
Hobart 4 2111 2211
Casey(Ant) 10 3--3 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 13 3432 3311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 12 Unsettled
20 Oct 12 Unsettled
21 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet at mid-latitudes and
looks set to remain so today. The effects of IMF Bz southwards
diminished at high latitudes as Bz flucyated near zero.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Propagation is expected to be normal in the next 24
hrs at mid latitudes. Higher latitudes are still partially disturbed,
presumably due to remnant polar cap covection from extended geomagnetic
merging with the IMF over the last couple of days. Some equatorial
latitude stations are still showing strong depletions during
the night.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct 10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct 10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Oct 12 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
21 Oct 14 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The equatorial ionosphere is still showing a strong
depression at night in some locations. Mid-latitudes appear mostly
normal. There was evidence of nightime sporadi E at sub-quatorial
latitudes (e.g. Darwin) and spread F conditions a southrnsites
(e.g. Hobart, Macquarie Is). High latitudes are still moderately
disturbed by remnant polar cap convective flows from the last
days extended geomagnetic merging with the solar magnetic field
(IMF), which is now on the wane.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 89600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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