[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 November 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 NOVEMBER - 28 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Nov:  80/20


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Nov             27 Nov             28 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 25 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   3222 1212
      Darwin               7   2232 1212
      Learmonth            8   2232 1312
      Culgoora             5   2221 1211
      Canberra             6   2321 1212
      Hobart               7   3321 1211
      Casey(Ant)          12   4--3 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   1123 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Nov    11    Unsettled 
28 Nov    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
possible at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Nov     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Nov     5    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Nov
Speed: 457 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   163000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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