[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 November 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 25 15:20:38 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
+++ CORRECTED COPY FORECAST IONOSPHERIC CONDITIONS +++
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: **YELLOW**
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Nov             26 Nov             27 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Background solar X-ray flux stabilised at a low level 
with only three small B-class flares from AR822 which is right 
on the western limb. AR823 has now passed behind the west limb. 
AR824 is about 25 degrees east of the central solar meridian 
and quiescent, producing no significant flaring today. The IMF 
has been around zero with a brief northward turning 05-07UT and 
slightly southwards (less than 5nT) from 09-15UT. These conditions 
suggests mild reconnection with the geomagnetic field for most 
of the day. Solar wind velocity has been slightly elevated, 450-500km/s 
suggesting some enhanced viscous interaction with the geomagnetic 
field. Solar wind temperature is slightly above average and a 
density jump was observed near 10UT at the ACE spacecraft near 
the L1 point. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1222 1222
      Darwin               5   2221 1222
      Learmonth            6   2222 1222
      Culgoora             5   1222 1222
      Canberra             8   1323 1222
      Hobart               8   1323 1222
      Casey(Ant)          12   --43 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   1332 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
26 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Extended periods of midly southwards solar magnetic
field (IMF) favoured merging with the geomagnetic field and 
enhanced polar magnetic activity. The enhancement appeared 
to last long enough to weakly spread from polar to mid latitudes 
causing a mild increase in magnetic activity. A slightly elevated
solar wind speed by 50-80km/sec is possibly contributing to 
enhancing global magnetic activity by viscous interaction at
the flanks of the magnetosphere. IMF is currently fluctuating
around zero so similar conditions may prevail causing a slow 
increase in global magnetic activity. An extended northward
IMF Bz will inhibit activity and extended Bz southwards will
enhance it, as will further solar wind speed increases.  
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT:
Both enhancements and depletions, observed at low 
latitudes over the day but the previous significant 
pre-dawn depletions have waned. Mid latitudes showed 
mild enhancements and no evidence of the previous 
pre-dawn depression. High latitudes were midly disturbed
by enhanced polar convectin due to magnetic merging with 
IMF. Sporadic E strong in various locations. Expect 
normal conditions with continuing mild variations at 
low latitudes. Slight depression of overall ionosphere 
may result from slowly increasing geomagnetic 
conditions. Possible continued disturbance at high 
latitudes in association with IMF merging activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Nov     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly below predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Nov     5    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
26 Nov    10    about 10% below predicted monthly values 
27 Nov    15    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT:
Variable conditions again observed in equatorial 
regions. PNG experience extended depessed conditions 
overnight, recovering near dawn while the western 
Pacific was enhanced most of the time with a strong 
dawn depression. Aus/NZ regions were mostly near average 
except for enhancements in the north-west, similar to PNG. 
Sporadic-E conditions again observed at Equatorial/N Aus
regions, especially at local morning. Western Pacific 
again had persistent sporadic E over the early night.
Expect mostly normal HF conditions next three days with 
continued low latitude variability and a slight depression
of already weak solar minmum ionosphere due to slowly 
increasing geomagnetic conditions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list