[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 2 10:30:57 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z NOVEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low
level today as well. No flare was recorded. The solar wind
speed first increased from 370 to 400 km/s by 0400UT today
and then showed a gradual decrease to 350 km/s by the time
of this report. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed minor to mild
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value almost the
whole day, staying slightly positive for most part of the
first half of the UT day and slightly negative for the
second half. Solar activity is expected to remain at very
low levels during the next 3 days with some possibility
of C-class activity. A recurrent coronal hole is expected
to take geoeffective position late on 03 November and its
effect may strengthen the solar wind stream for the
following few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 2212 2321
Darwin 8 2213 2322
Learmonth 6 2102 2321
Culgoora 6 2212 2221
Canberra 7 2212 2321
Hobart 7 2202 2321
Casey(Ant) 11 3-33 2221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 13 1112 3434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 5 Quiet
03 Nov 10 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
04 Nov 20 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods
possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain mostly
at quiet levels on 02 November. A recurrent coronal hole
is expected to take geoeffective position on 03 November.
This may raise the geomagnetic activity from quiet to
active levels on 03 November. The activity is expected to
remain mostly at unsettled to active levels with possibility
of isolated minor storm periods on 04 November due to the
effect of this coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
03 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Nov Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
at most locations on 02 November. Minor to mild degradations
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs are possible on
03 November on mid and high latitude locations. Minor to
moderate degradations are possible on most locations on
04 November due to an expected enhancement in geomagnetic
activity during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 21
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov 6 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 2 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15%.
04 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of the Aus/NZ regions on 02 November. Minor
to moderate degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs are possible on 03 and 04 November due to an
anticipated rise in geomagnetic activity during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 42700 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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