[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 October 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 1 10:29:42 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z OCTOBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 NOVEMBER - 03 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Oct: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today as well.
One B8.7 flare was recorded. The solar wind speed remained
between 380 and 400 km/s for most part of the UT day today.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained slightly to moderately positive until
around 0700UT. Bz turned negative around 0900UT and remained
slightly to moderately negative during the rest of the UT day.
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low to low levels
during the next 3 days. Region 814, which is expected to rotate
onto the disk on 01 November, and regions 818(S08E31) and
819(S09E25) may produce C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 31 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 2222 3333
Darwin 10 2222 3332
Learmonth 13 1222 3443
Culgoora 11 1222 3433
Canberra 10 1232 3-33
Hobart 13 2113 4-43
Casey(Ant) 10 3--3 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Oct :
Townsville NA
Learmonth 7 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2200 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Nov 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
02 Nov 5 Quiet
03 Nov 10 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
COMMENT: An unexpected rise in geomagnetic activity was
recorded today. This rise seems to have resulted from
sustained periods of negative Bz. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to remain mostly at quiet levels on 01 and
02 November with some possibility of unsettled conditions
on 01 November. A recurrent coronal hole is expected to
take geoeffective position on 03 November. This may raise
the geomagnetic activity from quiet to active levels
03 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal
03 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
at most locations during the next three days with some
possibility of minor and at times mild depressions and
degradations on high and some mid latitude locations on
01 and 03 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Oct 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day with periods of
degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Nov 7 Near predicted monthly values
02 Nov 10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of the Aus/NZ regions during the next three
days with some possibility of minor to mild depressions in
the Southern Aus/NZ regions at times on 01 and 03 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Oct
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 41300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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