[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 20 09:32:52 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. Only two
low B-class flares were observed. Regions 763(S16W36) and
759(N12W76) have shown some decay during the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 600 km/s
to 450 km/s during the UT day today. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained moderately
northwards until around 0300UT and then remained close to the
normal value with minor fluctuations on both sides during the
rest of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 8 1332 3112
Learmonth 9 2332 3122
Culgoora 6 1232 2111
Canberra 8 -232 3112
Hobart 7 1232 3011
Casey(Ant) 11 -432 2122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 13 3343 4322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods
pssible.
21 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
22 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: There is some possibility of geomagnetic activity
to rise upto active levels at times on 20 May due to a very
faint and slow full halo CME that was observed on 17 May and
due to a small coronal hole being in a geo-effetive position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal
22 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate depressions in MUFs and
degradations in HF conditions are possible at high
latitude locations on 20 May due to some expectations
of rise in geomagnetic activity at times on this day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day with periods
of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 25 depressed 5% in southern regions/ near predicted
montly values.
21 May 28 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
22 May 30 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
15%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. However,
minor depressions and degradations are possible at times in
the Southern Aus/NZ regions on 20 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:40%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 74200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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