[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 19 09:49:01 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low today. Region
763(S16W25) produced several B-class and two C-class
flares, the largest being a C2.0 at 1457UT. This region
has shown some decay during the last 24 hours. A partial
halo CME, observed in LASCO imagery at 0226UT, doesn't
seem to be earthward directed. The solar wind speed
remained between 450 and 550 km/s throughout the UT day
today. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) remained sligthly southwards during
the first half of the UT day and it remained sligtly to
moderately northwards during the second half of the UT day
today.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 7 2122 3301
Learmonth 7 2122 3301
Culgoora 7 1122 3301
Canberra 8 2123 3300
Hobart 8 1123 3301
Casey(Ant) 12 3332 331-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 19 4443 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 14 Quiet to active.
20 May 12 Mostly unsettled.
21 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 17 May
and is current for interval 18-19 May. Geomagnetic activity
may rise upto active levels on 19 May due to a CME activity
observed on 17 May and a small coronal hole taking
geo-effetive position.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations are possible at
high latitude locations on 19 and 20 May due to some
expectations of rise in geomagnetic activity on this day.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 21 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5% in
southern regions.
20 May 24 depressed 5% in southern regions/ near predicted
montly values.
21 May 30 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on
17 May and is current for interval 19 May only. HF conditions
are expected to remain mostly normal in the northern Aus/NZ
regions during the next three days. However, minor depressions
and degradations are possible at times in the Southern Aus/NZ
regions on 19 and 20 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:36%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 513 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 59600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list