[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 12 10:26:19 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A few B-class
and a C1.2 flares were observed. The C-flare was
produced by region 741(N12W27) at 0051UT. The effect
of the cornal hole seems to have faded substantially
during the last 24 hours as the solar wind has shown
significant weakening during this period. The solar
wind speed gradually decreased from 570 km/s to
460 km/s (approx.) today. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) showed minor
fluctuations in the first half of the UT day and remained
nearly stable and close to the normal value during the
second half of the UT day. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low to low levels during the next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 3222 2101
Darwin 7 2222 22-0
Learmonth 5 3122 2002
Culgoora 7 4222 2001
Canberra 5 2222 2001
Hobart 5 2222 2001
Casey(Ant) 8 3--3 2111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 3333 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 6 Mostly quiet.
13 Mar 9 Quiet to unsettled
14 Mar 11 Quiet to unsettled with some possibility of isolated
active periods.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to further
decline on 12 March as the coronal hole effect seems to
have almost diminished now. However, there is some
possibility of slight rise in geomagnetic activity on
13 and 14 March as a small coronal hole is taking a
geoeffective position. The geomagnetic activity is expected
to remain mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on 13 and
14 March with some possibility of isolated active periods
on 14 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions may be expected to
remain mostly near normal in most low and mid-latitude
locations during the next three days. However, minor
and sometimes mild degradations may be possible on high
latitudes on day two and three of this period due to an
expected slight rise in the geomagnetic activity
on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 31
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 38 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5 to 10%.
13 Mar 32 Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 26 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in most locations around Aus/NZ regions during the
next three days. However, isolated periods of minor
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may
be observed at times in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on
13 and 14 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 648 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list