[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 11 10:49:57 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A few B-class
and a C7.3 flares were observed. The C-flare was
produced by region 741(N13W12) at 1142UT. The effect
of the cornal hole seems to have faded substantially
during the last 24 hours as the solar wind has shown
significant weakening during this period. The solar
wind speed gradually decreased from 700 km/s to 560 km/s
(approx.) today and the north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) remained close to
the normal value in the second half of the UT day after
showing minor fluctuations during the first half of the
UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
to low levels during the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Mostly quiet to
unsettled with isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 3333 3311
Darwin 13 3233 4311
Learmonth 16 3332 4421
Culgoora 7 2--- ----
Canberra 13 3333 3311
Hobart 15 3334 3311
Casey(Ant) 21 4-53 3322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 113 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 20 3443 3344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
12 Mar 7 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
13 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The currently going on coronal hole-induced
geomagnetic activity is expected to continue to show
a gradual decline during the next two days from mostly
unsettled levels on day one to mostly quiet on day two.
A recurrent small size coronal hole, that is taking
geo-effective position, may be expected to cause some
rise in geo-magnetic activity starting from day three
of the period. A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in
the IPS magnetometer data at 1450UT on 10 Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions may be expected to
remain mostly near normal in most low and mid-latitude
locations during the next three days. However, minor
and sometimes mild degradations may be possible on high
latitudes on day one and three of this period due to an
expected slight rise in the geomagnetic activity
on these days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 31
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 34 near predicted monthly values
12 Mar 38 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
13 Mar 32 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly
normal in most locations around Aus/NZ regions during the
next three days. However, isolated periods of minor
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may
also be observed in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on
11 and 13 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 680 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 256000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list