[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 11 10:49:57 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 102/50

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. A few B-class 
and a C7.3 flares were observed. The C-flare was 
produced by region 741(N13W12) at 1142UT. The effect 
of the cornal hole seems to have faded substantially 
during the last 24 hours as the solar wind has shown 
significant weakening during this period. The solar 
wind speed gradually decreased from 700 km/s to 560 km/s 
(approx.) today and the north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) remained close to 
the normal value in the second half of the UT day after 
showing minor fluctuations during the first half of the 
UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low 
to low levels during the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Mostly quiet to 
		unsettled with isolated active periods. 

Estimated Indices 10 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3333 3311
      Darwin              13   3233 4311
      Learmonth           16   3332 4421
      Culgoora             7   2--- ----
      Canberra            13   3333 3311
      Hobart              15   3334 3311
      Casey(Ant)          21   4-53 3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             113   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             20   3443 3344     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled 
12 Mar     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
13 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The currently going on coronal hole-induced 
geomagnetic activity is expected to continue to show 
a gradual decline during the next two days from mostly 
unsettled levels on day one to mostly quiet on day two. 
A recurrent small size coronal hole, that is taking 
geo-effective position, may be expected to cause some 
rise in geo-magnetic activity starting from day three 
of the period. A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in 
the IPS magnetometer data at 1450UT on 10 Mar. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions may be expected to 
remain mostly near normal in most low and mid-latitude 
locations during the next three days. However, minor 
and sometimes mild degradations may be possible on high 
latitudes on day one and three of this period due to an 
expected slight rise in the geomagnetic activity 
on these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Mar    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  31

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar    34    near predicted monthly values 
12 Mar    38    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%. 
13 Mar    32    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain mostly 
normal in most locations around Aus/NZ regions during the 
next three days. However, isolated periods of minor 
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may 
also be observed in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on 
11 and 13 March. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 680 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   256000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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