[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jun             21 Jun             22 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1111 1101
      Learmonth            2   1111 1101
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             1   1100 1101
      Hobart               2   1111 1101
      Casey(Ant)           5   2222 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   1231 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jun    17    active 
21 Jun    13    Unsettled to Active 
22 Jun     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jun    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jun    35    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Jun    25    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Jun    25    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 511 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:   133000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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