[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jun             20 Jun             21 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2221 2121
      Learmonth            5   2121 2121
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             4   1121 2121
      Hobart               4   1121 2111
      Casey(Ant)           8   2332 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   4432 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jun    18    active 
20 Jun    11    Unsettled 
21 Jun     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : Began at 2225UT 16/06, Ended at 1810UT 17/06
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Jun    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jun    30    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Jun    25    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Jun    25    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 577 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   233000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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