[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 June 05

Wed Jun 15 09:36:35 EST 2005

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun:  94/40

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jun             16 Jun             17 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34
COMMENT: A weak coronal mass ejection pass by the Earth at 1752UT. 
Solar wind speed jumped from 450 to 525km/sec. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field breifly fluctuated 
southward post shock arrival. Solar region 775 now located at 
N10W59 was reported by LASCO to be the origin of a slow full 
halo coronal mass ejection 09-15UT on 14 June. Review of LASCO 
imagery showed the CME was biased mostly westward. This mass 
ejection is expected to reach the Earth on 16 June. Far westward 
location and slow event speed possibly detract from geoeffectiveness 
of this event. The CME was associated with only a C4 xray event. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
14/1700UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 14 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2221 1043
      Learmonth            6   1111 1043
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra             4   1121 0033
      Hobart               5   2121 0033
      Casey(Ant)          15   3332 1152

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             33   5644 4332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jun    18    Active 
16 Jun    25    Active to minor storm 
17 Jun    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active to minor storm conditions conditions expected 
late 15-16 Jun, due to recent coronal mass ejection activity. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-Normal
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF comms quality expected 16-17 
June mid-high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Jun    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jun    25    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jun    15    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
17 Jun    15    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected initially for today. Conditions 
may detriorate local night tonight southern Aus/NZ region only. 
Mild depressions of 15% possible after local dawn on 16 and 17 
June. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 465 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    58700 K  Bz:  -6 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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