[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 June 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JUNE 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jun             15 Jun             16 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              85/27
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was mildly southward over the UT day. No significant flare 
activity has been observed in past 24 hours. A weak coronal mass 
ejection may be enroute to the Earth. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 13 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region      23   4343 5331
      Learmonth           29   5443 5431
      Culgoora             -   ---- ----
      Canberra            24   4344 5331
      Hobart              23   3344 5330
      Casey(Ant)          13   3332 3331
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             35   2244 4556     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jun    14    Unsettled to Active 
15 Jun    16    active 
16 Jun    17    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 12 June and 
is current for interval 12-14 June. Geomagnetic field activiyt 
declining after recent coronal mass ejection induced activity. 
Active conditions may be experienced on 15 Jun, due to a recent 
coronal mass ejection. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
16 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Jun    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 40% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 30% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jun    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
15 Jun    25    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jun    25    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 13 June 
and is current for interval 13-14 June. Mild depressions of 15% 
possible after local dawn. Generally improved HF conditions expected 
today following depressed MUFS on 13 Jun for Southern AUS/NZ 
region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 453 km/sec  Density:    8.9 p/cc  Temp:    41400 K  Bz:  -4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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