[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 30 09:51:50 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JULY - 01 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jul: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jul 31 Jul 01 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: The Sun remained relatively flare quiet today with only
a C3.4 level flare being produced by AR792. The high speed coronal
hole wind stream is persisting, with solar wind velocity gradually
declining from 600 km/s early in the UT day to 550 km/s at the
time of report issue. Proton flux remains elevated at 31 pfu
at the time of report issue. Region 792 has potential for further
M class flare production.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 29 Jul : A K
Australian Region 13 3324 2322
Learmonth 14 3334 2322
Culgoora 10 2323 2322
Canberra 13 2324 2332
Hobart 12 2324 232-
Casey(Ant) 20 4434 3332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 28 3544 5334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jul 12 Unsettled
31 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Isolated active periods were observed at high latitudes,
with one active period at all latitudes in the mid-part of the
UT day. Solar wind velocity remains elevated under the influence
of a coronal hole wind stream, but is expected to decline on
days two and three. Expect possible active intervals on day one,
declining to mostly unsettled on days two and three. Minor geomagnetic
shocks possible following recent CME activity.
A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1037UT on 29 Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 27 07 2005 2325UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect periods of disturbance at high latitudes due
to coronal hole wind stream and elevated proton fluxes resulting
from recent solar activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jul 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased daytime
absorption observed. Significant overnight
enhancements observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values
01 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Occasionally strong sporadic-E and spread-F conditions
observed at high latitudes. Expect periods of degradation S Aus/NZ
regions next two days due to geomagnetic activity associated
with a high speed coronal hole wind stream. Proton event following
recent flare activity is still in progress, but expected to decline
after today. Isolated radio fadeouts possible during local day
over the next week due to returning active solar region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jul
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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