[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 29 09:56:52 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0032UT possible lower West Pacific
M4.4 2158UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Returning active region 786 has been newly numbered
AR792 and was responsible for moderate solar activity over the
past 24 hours. This region produced a C4.5 level flare at 27/2300,
an M1.0 level flare at 28/0030, a C2.8 level flare at 0637 and
M4.2 level flare at 2208UT. Westward directed CME's were observed
in LASCO C3 imagery following the M1 and C2.8 level flares. A
>10MeV proton event is in progress, probably being driven by
the sequence of back side/ east limb events of the past few days.
This event is expected to end sometime today, unless sustained
by further CME activity. Solar wind speed has remained steady
at around 600 km/s over the second half of the UT day under the
influence of a geoeffectively positioned coronal hole. Continuing
moderate to major solar activity is anticipated from AR792. Further
analysis of its magnetic structure will become possible as it
rotates onto the visible disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 14 2322 5223
Learmonth 16 3323 5223
Culgoora 15 2332 5223
Canberra 15 2322 5323
Hobart 15 2322 5323
Casey(Ant) 15 3333 4235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 56 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17 2232 3345
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
30 Jul 12 Unsettled
31 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly unsettled, with active
periods being observed early and late in the UT day, and a minor
storm interval after 12UT. Solar wind speed remains elevated
due to a coronal hole wind stream. The Bz component of the IMF
has remained mostly neutral, but with isolated intervals of polarity
fluctuations up to +5/-10 nT. These intervls correspond to the
observed active to minor storm periods. Expect similar conditions
today, gradually declining over days two and three. There is
a possibility of solar wind and geomagnetic shocks over the next
week due to active solar region 792.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 27 07 2005 2325UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Expect periods of disturbance at high latitudes due
to coronal hole wind stream and elevated proton fluxes resulting
from recent solar activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values to depressed upto
10%.
30 Jul 40 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect periods of degradation S Aus/NZ regios next two
days due to geomagnetic activity associated with a high speed
coronal hole wind stream. Isolated radio fadeouts possible during
local day over the next week due to returning active solar region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 59400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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