[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 July 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 28 09:44:36 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JULY - 30 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M3.7    0502UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jul:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jul             29 Jul             30 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity increased to moderate with a long-duration 
M3.7 level flare occuring on the east limb at 0500UT. An associated 
Type II radio sweep was reported by Learmonth Solar Observatory 
with an estimated shock speed of 682 km/s. The event was also 
observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph with an estimated 
shock speed of 671 km/s. LASCO C3 imagery showed a narrow, westerly 
directed CME first visible at 0318UT, possibly a backside event, 
followed by an easterly-directed semi-halo CME from the east-limb 
flare, first visible at 0518UT. Neither event is expected to 
be geoeffective. Origin of the east limb event is most likely 
returning region 786. This regiion appears to be still active 
and elevated solar activity is expected as it rotates onto the 
visible disk. Solar wind speed increased significantly after 
10UT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field showed 
fluctuations of +5 to -10 nT late in the day. These effects are 
probably the onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jul: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 27 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2221 1224
      Learmonth            7   2221 1234
      Culgoora             6   2221 2223
      Canberra             5   1221 1224
      Hobart               5   1221 1224
      Casey(Ant)           8   2232 2224
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jul : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   1121 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
29 Jul    12    Unsettled 
30 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream was 
observed late in the UT day 27 Jul. Geomagnetic activity is likely 
to increase to mostly unsettled with active periods on days one 
and two of the forecast period, declining to quiet to unsettled 
on day three. Returning solar active region 786 (yet to be newly 
numbered) may produce isolated geoeffective flare events over 
the next week. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
30 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: A brief period of disturbance was observed mostly at 
low latitudes around 05UT due to a significant X-ray solar flare. 
Otherwise mostly normal HF condiions at all latitudes. Expect 
periods of degradation at mid to high latitudes next three days 
due to elevated geomagnetic activity associated with a high speed 
coronal hole wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jul    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for July:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jul    35    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Jul    30    near predicted monthly values to depressed upto 
                10%. 
30 Jul    40    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expect periods of degradation S Aus/NZ regios next three 
days due to geomagnetic activity associated with a high speed 
coronal hole wind stream. Isolated radio fadeouts possible during 
local day over the next week due to returning active solar region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jul
Speed: 306 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    20100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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