[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 27 09:49:20 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jul 28 Jul 29 Jul
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: The solar activity continued to remain very
low today as well. Three more backside CMEs were
observed today. None of these CMEs is expected to be
geoeffective. Region 791(N13E08), the only region on
the disk, produced a few B-class flares. This region
may produce more B-class or isolated C-class events.
The solar wind speed remained between 290 and 310 km/s
almost the whole day today. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained
slightly negative for most part of the UT day. The
solar activity is expected to remain at very low to
low levels during the next three days. Another coronal
hole is expected to take geoeffective position in the
next two days and it may strengthen the solar wind stream
from 28 to 30 July approximately.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 1211
Learmonth 3 1111 0211
Culgoora 4 2111 1211
Canberra 1 1100 0101
Hobart 3 1111 1201
Casey(Ant) 4 1211 1211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 2211 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jul 6 Quiet
28 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to
remain mostly at quiet levels on 27 July and first
half of 28 July. The effect of a recurrent coronal
hole may raise the geomagnetic activity to unsettled
and then active levels during the following three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: The HF conditions are expected to remain
mostly normal on most locations on 27 July and first
half of 28 July. Minor to moderate degradations are
possible on high latitude and some mid latitude locations
for approximately three days- starting from second half
of 28 July.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jul 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jul 28 near predicted monthly values to enhanced 5 to
10%.
28 Jul 23 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul 19 near predicted monthly values to depressed upto
10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most Aus/NZ regions on 27 July and first half of 28 July.
Minor degradations are possible in some Southern Aus/NZ
regions during the second half of the UT day on 28 July.
Minor to mild degradations are possible in the Southern
Aus/NZ regions on 29 July.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 300 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 17700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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