[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 13 09:41:12 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1309UT possible lower European
M1.1 1600UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.5 1625UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 2246UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind sped rose over the past 24 hours from 400
to 500km/sec. The north south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was southward 00-05UT, and 09-15UT. The cause
of the increase in wind speed is unclear, possibly a combination
of recurrent and indistinct weak mass ejection effects. Solar
region 786 located at N11W64 produced the above M1 events. The
M1 event at 16UT was reported by SEC to be assciated with a Type
IV radio sweep. Subsequent viewing of SOHO/LASCO imagery confirmed
a coronal mass ejection had ocurred. However, the coronal mass
ejection appears predominately westward directed, with limited
expansion.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
12/0425UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 20 3334 5321
Learmonth 18 3334 5210
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 20 3334 5320
Hobart 22 3344 5321
Casey(Ant) 17 3333 5222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 30
Planetary 50
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 23 4353 4343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 18 Unsettled to active
14 Jul 18 Unsettled to active
15 Jul 10 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 10 July and
is current for interval 11-13 July. Active periods expected next
few days. Chance for isolated minor storm periods during local
night hours due to recent weak mass ejection activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
14 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditins observed at high latitudes over
past 24 hours. HF conditions expected to remain mildly degraded
at mid to high latitudes over next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F and absorption observed at some Antarctic
sites, second half of UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions may have been experienced
overnight. MUFs are near predicted monthly values after local
dawn this morning and are expected to remain as such in the Australian/NZ
region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jul
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 27000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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