[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 12 09:51:26 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JULY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
region 786 the source of numerous C-class flares. The largest
being a C8.4 at 1500UT. A shock in the solar wind stream is expected
in the next 12 hours from the M2 class flare and its associated
CME from 09July. Solar wind speed is currently only 400km/s after
beginning the UT day at 420km/s. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was southward for almost
the UT day at roughly -5nT, increasing to -10nT between
1700UT-1800UT. The solar activity is expected to remain at low
to moderate levels for the next 2 days, until region 786, the
largest and most active region rotates off disk. No major change
in size or magnetic complexity of any of regions was observed
during the last 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 17 3243 4241
Learmonth 16 3233 4241
Culgoora - ---- ----
Canberra 16 2243 4241
Hobart 16 3243 4231
Casey(Ant) 15 3333 4232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 47 4455 6555
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 26 active
13 Jul 18 active
14 Jul 13 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 10 July and
is current for interval 11-13 July. Active geomagnetic levels
observed over the last 24 hours due to the effects of 07July
CME shock arrival. These conditions are expected to continue for
the next 2 days, with the arrival of another shock from the 09July
CME, with the chance of isolated minor storm levels in the next
12 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Fair Fair Fair-Poor
13 Jul Normal Normal-Fair Fair
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Disturbed periods observed during the last 24 hours
over all latitudes, with high latitudes affected the most. Similar
conditions expected for the next two days due to increased geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 30 near predicted monthly values to depressed 5
to 10%.
13 Jul 30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
14 Jul 35 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 11 July
and is current for interval 11-12 July. Disturbed intervals observed
for Southern Australian regions, mainly during local night over
the last 24 hours. Further periods of degraded HF conditions
are expected over the next two days mainly at mid to high latitudes
due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 15.4 p/cc Temp: 51500 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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