[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 January 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 28 10:26:19 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: The sun has been mostly flare quiet of past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed again declined from 420 to 360km/sec over UT
day. Solar region 727 (S09W01) is declining may produce an isolated
low level flare. Solar wind speed is expected to remain low until
29 Jan, when the Earth is expected to enter a another coronal
hole wind stream from a coronal hole which is now just past
solar central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 3 1111 0122
Darwin 3 1111 0122
Learmonth 3 2110 0121
Culgoora 2 1010 0121
Canberra 2 1111 0021
Hobart 2 1111 0011
Casey(Ant) 8 2332 1123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 4 1101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 14 Unsettled
29 Jan 25 Active to minor storm
30 Jan 22 Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 26 January and
is current for interval 29-30 January. Generally quiet to unsettled
conditions expected today. 27 day recurrent patterns suggest
active to minor storm periods possible 29-30 Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Jan Fair Fair Fair-Poor
30 Jan Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected until 29 Jan. Afterwhich
degraded HF conditions may be experienced for mid to high latitudes,
due to the anticpated affects of a coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for January: 32
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan 40 Near predicted monthly values
29 Jan 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
30 Jan 15 depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for next two days. Some southern
region sites depressed 15-20% after local dawn. This depression is
not expected to persist. Degraded HF communications quality may
be experienced on 29 Jan, and MUFs may be lower than normal on 30 Jan,
for southern Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 57300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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