[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 January 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jan             28 Jan             29 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: The sun has been mostly flare quiet of past 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed again declined from 420 to 360km/sec over UT 
day. Solar wind speed is expected to remain low until 29 Jan, 
when the Earth is expected to enter a another coronal hole wind 
stream from a coronal hole which is currently near solar central 
meridian. This hole is quite large, and may produce a stronger 
disturbance than the one just past. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1111 2011
      Darwin               3   1111 1111
      Learmonth            2   1011 1021
      Culgoora             3   1111 2011
      Canberra             3   1111 2011
      Hobart               2   11-1 2001
      Casey(Ant)           8   2-33 1121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora           123   (Severe storm)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1011 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jan    10    Quiet to unsettled 
28 Jan    14    Unsettled 
29 Jan    25    Active to minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 26 January and 
is current for interval 29-30 January. Generally unsettled conditions 
expected. 27 day recurrent patterns suggest active to minor storm 
periods possible 29-30 Jan. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Jan      Normal-Fair    Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected until 29 Jan. Afterwhich 
degraded HF conditions may be experienced for mid to high latitudes, 
due to the anticpated affects of a coronal hole wind stream. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jan    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected for next two days. Degraded 
HF communications quality may be experienced on 29 Jan, and MUFs 
may be lower than normal on 30 Jan, for southern Aus/NZ region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+09 (very high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:32%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A8.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 471 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    70700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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