[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 January 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jan             26 Jan             27 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds from the coronal hole have declined 
sooner than expected, with solar wind speed falling from 600 
to 500 km/sec. Continued decline in wind speed expected today. 
No significant flare activity observed last 24 hours. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 24 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2222 3322
      Darwin               7   2122 2312
      Learmonth            8   2212 3322
      Culgoora             7   1222 3222
      Canberra             8   2212 3322
      Hobart              10   2322 3322
      Casey(Ant)          17   3--4 3332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora             7   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             17   4433 3432     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jan     6    Quiet 
26 Jan     7    Quiet 
27 Jan     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jan    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Jan    30    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 671 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   161000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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