[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 January 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JANUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0152UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jan             25 Jan             26 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Coronal hole visible in western solar hemisphere. Elevated 
solar wind speeds expected next few days from this hole. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 23 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   3323 4422
      Darwin              13   3223 4323
      Learmonth           20   3323 4532
      Culgoora            10   2322 3322
      Canberra            17   -333 4422
      Hobart              16   2333 4422
      Casey(Ant)          17   3--3 3432
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        23
           Planetary             28   5633 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jan    17    active 
25 Jan    16    active 
26 Jan    17    active 
COMMENT: Mild to moderate coronal hole wind stream induced activity 
expected next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
PCA Event : Began at 0220UT 16/01, Ended at 1745UT 22/01
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
25 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
26 Jan      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jan    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  32

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jan    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
25 Jan    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
26 Jan    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
COMMENT: Southern region MUFs may be mildly depressed at times 
over next few days due to mild geomagnetic activity from coronal 
hole wind stream. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 768 km/sec  Density:    0.9 p/cc  Temp:   123000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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