[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 February 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Feb             01 Mar             02 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar wind moderately elevated at around 500 km/sec. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
was on averaged mildly northward over the past 24 hours. The 
sun has been flare quiet of past 24 hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2322 2212
      Darwin               6   2321 0---
      Learmonth            8   2322 2222
      Culgoora             7   1321 3112
      Canberra             7   1321 3112
      Hobart               7   1321 3212
      Casey(Ant)          17   35-3 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   2223 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Feb    19    Unsettled to active 
01 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Mar     8    Quiet to Active 
COMMENT: Recurrent patterns suggest that isolated active periods 
may be possible today, then declining to quiet conditions. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Feb    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Enhanced by 80% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Feb    30    near predicted monthly values 
01 Mar    30    near predicted monthly values 
02 Mar    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: oronal hole wind stream less geoeffective than expected 
MUFs now expected to remain mostly near normal. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 526 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:   187000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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