[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 February 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Feb             28 Feb             01 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3223 3322
      Darwin              10   3223 2322
      Learmonth           12   3223 3332
      Culgoora             9   2223 2322
      Canberra            11   2223 3332
      Hobart              13   2234 3322
      Casey(Ant)          15   4--4 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9   1122 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Feb    18    active 
28 Feb    19    active 
01 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
28 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Feb    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Feb    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
01 Mar    20    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 23 February 
and is current for interval 26-27 February. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 519 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:   194000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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