[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 20 10:47:27 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 FEBRUARY - 22 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.3 1101UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours with
region 732 producing a M3.3 class event at 1040UT. With region
732 having just rotated of disk, no geoeffective effects are
expected from this flare. The solar wind speed ranged between
540km/s-460km/s and was at 500km/s at the time of this report.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT for the entire UT day. Solar activity
is expected to remain at low levels for the next 2 days, with
a small decrease in size of region 735 and region 732 having
just rotated off disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 1234 4222
Darwin 9 1233 3223
Learmonth 15 1234 4332
Culgoora 13 1234 4222
Canberra 14 0234 4322
Hobart 11 1234 3222
Casey(Ant) 16 2444 3223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 25 5443 4432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Feb 12 Unsettled
21 Feb 12 Unsettled
22 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to range from Quiet
to Unsettled levels for the next 2 days. Slight chance of isolated
Active periods possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal over
all latitudes for the next two days. Slight chance of minor degradations
at high latitudes possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Feb 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 85% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Feb 50 near predicted monthly values
21 Feb 55 near predicted monthly values
22 Feb 60 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
all Aus/NZ regions for the next two days, with slight chance
of degraded conditions over Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Feb
Speed: 537 km/sec Density: 4.0 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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