[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 February 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 19 10:21:18 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z FEBRUARY 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Feb: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. There
were numerous B-class and C-class events, the largest being a
C2.0 from region 732 at 1255UT. The solar wind speed rose from
450km/s at the beginning of the UT day and peaked at 1600UT at
600km/s. It then gradually fell to be 550km/s at the time of
this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) was southward at 0000UT at a maximum of -20nT
after which it then fluctuated between +/-10nT, and then went
nuetral at 1700UT. Solar activity is expected to remain at low
levels for the next 2 days, with no change in sunspot size or
magnetic complexity of any regions currently on the disk. Elevated
solar wind stream parameters are expected for the next 24 hours
due to coronal hole effects and the 16Feb earth directed CME.
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning
18/0755UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic
activity over next 24-36 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Feb: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 18 Feb : A K
Australian Region 30 4454 4522
Darwin 25 4353 3522
Learmonth 29 5343 3622
Culgoora 21 4343 3511
Canberra 26 4444 4512
Hobart 23 4444 4412
Casey(Ant) 34 5464 4423
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Feb :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 1201 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Feb 16 active
20 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
21 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to be Active for the
next 24 hours with continued coronal hole effects and the expected
arrival of a shock front from the 16Feb CME. Conditions expected
to be Unsettled to Active for 20Feb.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Feb Normal Normal-Fair Fair
20 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal over
all latitudes for the next two days with minor to mild degradations
at high latitudes due to increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Feb 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Feb 40 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
20 Feb 45 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
21 Feb 50 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
all Aus/NZ regions for the next two days, with the chance of
degraded conditions over Southern Aus/NZ regions from increased
geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Feb
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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