[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 31 10:43:45 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Dec             01 Jan             02 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low over the past 24 hours, 
with no significant X-ray flare activity observed. A fast, south-east 
directed 90-degree halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery 
at 29/2118. This possibly originatd from an eruptive filament 
in the south-east quadrant. A geoeffective glancing blow from 
this event is possible on 01-02 Jan. Solar wind parameters are 
gradually declining as the current geoeffective coronal hole 
rotates past the west limb. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 30 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2322 1212
      Darwin               5   2222 1212
      Learmonth            5   2212 1212
      Culgoora             6   2322 1111
      Canberra             7   2322 1212
      Hobart               7   2323 1111
      Casey(Ant)           9   ---3 2222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3232 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
02 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity declined gradually from 700 to 550 
km/s over the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field fluctuated +/-5nT until 15 UT, then settled to 
a neutral to mildly southward orientation. Periods of unsettled 
to active conditions were observed at high latitudes. Conditions 
remained mostly quiet at mid to low latitudes. Expect mostly 
quiet conditions on day one, with the possibility of disturbed 
intervals at high latitudes. There is a chance of brief active 
to minor storm periods on days two and three resulting from a 
possible earth-directed component of a south-east directed CME 
observed on 29 Dec. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for low to mid 
latitudes over the last 24 hours with some isolated disturbed 
periods due to increased geomagnetic activity at high latitudes. 
Disturbed conditions possible mainly at high latitudes on days 
two and three. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Dec    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  18

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Dec    45    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
01 Jan    35    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
02 Jan    35    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions observed Equatorial/N 
Aus/S Aus regions over the UT day. Mostly normal conditions observed 
Antarctic region with extended periods of spread-F . 
Widespread intense sporadic-E conditions observed low to mid 
latitudes after local dawn today. Expect normal to enhanced conditions 
next three days, with the possibility of disturbed periods S 
Aus/Antarctic regions on days two and three. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 693 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   199000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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