[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 31 10:43:45 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low over the past 24 hours,
with no significant X-ray flare activity observed. A fast, south-east
directed 90-degree halo CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery
at 29/2118. This possibly originatd from an eruptive filament
in the south-east quadrant. A geoeffective glancing blow from
this event is possible on 01-02 Jan. Solar wind parameters are
gradually declining as the current geoeffective coronal hole
rotates past the west limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 2322 1212
Darwin 5 2222 1212
Learmonth 5 2212 1212
Culgoora 6 2322 1111
Canberra 7 2322 1212
Hobart 7 2323 1111
Casey(Ant) 9 ---3 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3232 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity declined gradually from 700 to 550
km/s over the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field fluctuated +/-5nT until 15 UT, then settled to
a neutral to mildly southward orientation. Periods of unsettled
to active conditions were observed at high latitudes. Conditions
remained mostly quiet at mid to low latitudes. Expect mostly
quiet conditions on day one, with the possibility of disturbed
intervals at high latitudes. There is a chance of brief active
to minor storm periods on days two and three resulting from a
possible earth-directed component of a south-east directed CME
observed on 29 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for low to mid
latitudes over the last 24 hours with some isolated disturbed
periods due to increased geomagnetic activity at high latitudes.
Disturbed conditions possible mainly at high latitudes on days
two and three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 45 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
01 Jan 35 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
02 Jan 35 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions observed Equatorial/N
Aus/S Aus regions over the UT day. Mostly normal conditions observed
Antarctic region with extended periods of spread-F .
Widespread intense sporadic-E conditions observed low to mid
latitudes after local dawn today. Expect normal to enhanced conditions
next three days, with the possibility of disturbed periods S
Aus/Antarctic regions on days two and three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 693 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 199000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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