[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 30 10:51:17 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
the the only significant flare being a C1.1 event at 2106UT that
is most likely to have originated from active region 843. Solar
activity is expected to remain at low levels over the next 24
hours with no major changes in any of the current sunspots size
or magnetic complexity. Solar wind velocity remains at elevated
level due to the coronal hole that is expected to remain in geoeffective
position for the next 24 to 36 hours. Solar wind velocity declined
gradually over the UT day from 740km/s to be around 680km/s at
the time of this report. The north south component of the IMF,
Bz fluctuated between +/-5nT throughout the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 3233 2223
Darwin 8 3222 2223
Learmonth 11 3232 3323
Culgoora 8 2233 2212
Canberra 9 3233 2212
Hobart 11 3243 2212
Casey(Ant) 13 ---3 3323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Hobart 50 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14 3333 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Jan 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from Quiet to mostly Unsettled
levels over the last 24 hours. Solar wind velocity remains elevated
due to the current geoeffective coronal hole, and predominently
Unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected to continue for
the next 24-36 hours. Isolated active periods at high latitudes
possible during this period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for low to mid
latitudes over the last 24 hours with some isolated disturbed
periods due to increased geomagnetic activity. Disturbed conditions
observed for high latitudes. These conditions are expected to
continue for the next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 35 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
31 Dec 30 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
01 Jan 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements and disturbed periods observed
in the Northern Australia and Equatorial region over the
past 24 hours. Similar observed conditions for Southern Aus
and NZ regions with slightly lower enhancements. These
conditions are expected to continue over the next 24-36
hours after which the elevated geomagnetic
conditions due to coronal hole effects are expected to subside.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 668 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 220000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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