[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 21 10:33:49 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 24
hours. Solar wind speed gradually increased from 420 to 650
km/s by 0800UT and then gradually decreased to nearly 510 km/s
by the time of this report. This strengthning in the solar
wind stream seems to have been caused by a visibly faint
coronal hole, which is currently in a geoeffective position.
The north-south component of the interplanetory magnetic
field (Bz) showed minor to mild fluctuations on both sides
of the normal value almost the whole day. Solar activity is
expected to remain at very low levels during the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Quiet to unsettled with
isolated active periods.
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 13 3333 3233
Darwin 9 3222 3222
Learmonth 11 3223 3232
Culgoora 11 2332 3232
Canberra 12 2333 3233
Hobart 14 2333 4233
Casey(Ant) 19 4--3 3343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2100 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 10 Mostly quiet to unsettled, isolated active conditions
possible.
22 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Dec 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled conditions possible.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity rose from quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods during the last 24 hours.
This seems to have been caused by the effect of a visibly
faint coronal hole. Due to an expected continued strengthning
of the solar wind stream due to the effect of this coronal hole,
the geomagnetic activity may remain enhanced to quiet to
unsettled levels with some possibility of isolated active
periods on 21 December. Geomagnetic activity is expected to
decline to quiet to unsettled levels on 22 December and mostly
quiet on 23 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most low and mid latitude locations during the next 3 days.
However, minor to mild degradations may be possible on high
latitude location on 21 and 22 December due to an anticipated
rise in geomagnetic actvity on these days. .
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values in northern regions/5
to 10% depressions possible in the southern regions.
22 Dec 18 Near predicted monthly values in northern regions/5%
depressions possible in the southern regions.
23 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in northern Aus/NZ regions during the next 3 days. Minor to
mild degradations are possible in the Southern Aus/NZ regions
on 21 and 22 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 48300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list