[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 20 10:32:43 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z DECEMBER 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last
24 hours. A few B-class flares were observed mostly from
region 837(S10W07). Solar wind speed remained close to
300 km/s until around 0600UT and then showed a gradual rise
to 450 km/s by the time of this report. The north-south
component of the interplanetory magnetic field (Bz) remained
close to the normal value during the first half of the UT
day today and showed minor to mild fluctuations on both
sides of the normal value during the rest of the day. Solar
activity is expected to remain at very low to low levels
during the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 2222 3333
Darwin 9 2122 3333
Learmonth 9 2112 3333
Culgoora 9 2213 3322
Canberra 10 2222 3333
Hobart 10 3222 3322
Casey(Ant) 15 3--3 3-33
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1001 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet to
unsettled levels during the last 24 hours and it is expected
to remain at similar levels during the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most low and mid and locations during the next 3 days.
Minor to mild degradations may be possible on high latitude
location during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 18
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values in northern regions/5
to 10% depressions possible in the southern regions.
21 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values in northern regions/5
to 10% depressions possible in the southern regions.
22 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values in northern regions/5
to 10% depressions possible in the southern regions.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in northern Aus/NZ regions during the next 3 days. Minor to
mild degradations are possible in the Southern Aus/NZ regions
during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 16600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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