[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Aug             28 Aug             29 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2232 0111
      Learmonth            4   2222 0001
      Culgoora             4   2222 0112
      Canberra             5   2232 0000
      Hobart               6   2232 0111
      Casey(Ant)          10   3432 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             24   5433 4532     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Aug     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : Began at 2100UT 22/08, Ended at 0140UT 25/08
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Aug    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Enhanced by 20% during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Aug    25    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.9E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 658 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:   177000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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