[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 26 09:55:43 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.4 0440UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the previous 24 hours.
AR803 recently emerged across the eastern limb, produced five
B class flares and an M6.4 flare at 0440UT with very short duration.
This M flare produced an eastward directed CME observed by the
SOHO spacecraft that should not be geoeffective. AR803 appears
to have quietened from the activity of the last two days but
both it and AR800 retain the possibility of producing M class
flares. A weak solar wind shock was observed at 1307UT by the
ACE spacecraft at the L1 point and is likely the glancing blow
from the edge of the third CME produced by AR798. The solar wind
speed remains elevated after the passage of the three AR798 CMEs
and the underlying effects of a coronal hole wind stream that
now appears to be dissipating. Speeds declined from 700 to below
600km/s over the day.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1307UT
on 25 Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 18 4333 4332
Learmonth 25 5323 5432
Culgoora 17 4333 4322
Canberra 18 4333 4332
Hobart 21 4344 4332
Casey(Ant) 24 4533 4-32
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 72
Planetary 110 3379 8565
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 20 active
27 Aug 12 Unsettled
28 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic avtivity has been recovering from the storm
conditions induced by the CME train from AR798. High latitudes
were affected by a weak shock around 13UT probably associated
with the third CME and conditions were elevated until ~18UT.
Mid-latitudes were not effected and continued to recover towards
unsettled levels, despite the continued elevated solar wind velocities.
Conditions are expected to be active to unsettled in the next
24hrs and declining towards unsettled-quiet the days after.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : Began at 2100UT 22/08, Ended at 0140UT 25/08
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal-Fair Fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF communications conditions were recovering from degraded
in response to the geomagnetic storm which commenced following
the second CME. Maximum frequencies continue to be lower than
average but are likely to recover in the next 24hrs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
about 25% below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 26
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 20 about 15% below predicted monthly values
27 Aug 30 near predicted monthly values
28 Aug 30 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.1E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 635 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 244000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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