[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 August 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 25 09:54:48 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 25 AUGUST - 27 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Aug:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Aug             26 Aug             27 Aug
Activity     Low                Low to moderate    Moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low over the previous 24 hours. 
Region 798 produced a C4.7-class flare, which reached maximum 
at 0706Z. Region 798 will rotate off the visible disk today, 
however there remains a chance of an M-class flare from this 
active region. Region 800 remains a BETA magnetic class sunspot 
group and has only a slight chance of producing an M-class flare. 
Two strong shocks in the solar wind impacted on the Earth in 
the past 24 hours.These were consistent with the predicted arrival 
time of the two CMEs which occurred on the 22nd of August. The 
solar wind remains elevated after the passage of the two CMEs 
most likely as a result of a coronal hole wind stream. 
A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 0537UT on 
24 Aug. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
24/0735UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Aug: Unsettled to severe storm. 

Estimated Indices 24 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      56   2457 6554
      Learmonth           60   3357 6564
      Culgoora            52   2356 7454
      Canberra            54   2467 -454
      Hobart              87   2358 7664
      Casey(Ant)          49   3566 5454
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart             125   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        50
           Planetary            125                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   3222 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Aug    40    Minor storm 
26 Aug    25    active 
27 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 22 August and 
is current for interval 24-25 August. Geomagnetic avtivity was 
unsettled on the 24th of August until the arrival of two CMEs 
at 0539Z and 0828Z at ACE satellite location producing sudden 
impulses in the geomagnetic field. The second CME contained a 
strongly southward IMF Bz component causing major-severe storm 
geomagnetic conditions, which lasted for 6-8 hours. IMF Bz dropped 
below -50nT following the second CME. Geomagnetic activity is 
currently at minor storm levels and is expected to remain at 
that level for today, gradually decreasing to active on 26th 
August and unsettled conditions on the 27th of August. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Fair-poor      Fair-poor      Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 22 08 2005 2100UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Aug      Fair           Fair-Poor      Poor(PCA)
26 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF communications conditions were degraded in response 
to the geomagnetic storm which commenced following the second 
CME sudden impulse at ~0800Z, and remained poor for 12 hours. 
Potential for further SWF over the next 24 hours is low-moderate. 
The Polar Cap Absorption event in progress is expected to end 
today with HF conditions at high latitudes expected to return 
to fair by 26 August. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Aug    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Aug     8    30 to 40% below predicted monthly values 
26 Aug    20    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
27 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 23 August 
and is current for interval 24-25 August. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+07
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Aug
Speed: 465 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    82200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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