[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 August 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 24 09:56:14 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 24 AUGUST - 26 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.7    1447UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Aug: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Aug             25 Aug             26 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been moderate over the previous 24 
hours. Region 798 produced a M2.7-class flare, which reached 
maximum at 1444Z. Associated westward directed CME was detected 
on SOHO LASCO which may cause a glancing blow late on the 25th 
of August UT. Expect 22 August CME shocks to arrive today. Region 
798 is growing in area and complexity as it rotates off the visible 
disk, presently classed as a DKC BETA-GAMMA-DELTA spot group. 
Expect isolated M-class flares to continue. Solar wind should 
remain slightly elevated due to Earth passing through small coronal 
hole wind stream, duration one day. Noted an eastward directed 
CME, not geoeffective, commencing at 0800UT possibly associated 
with returning region 792 or 796. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1936UT 
on 23 Aug. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
23/0025UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2223 2112
      Learmonth            6   2123 2111
      Culgoora             6   2123 2112
      Canberra             7   2223 2112
      Hobart               7   2223 2211
      Casey(Ant)          11   3333 2123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12   3412 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Aug    30    Active to Minor storm 
25 Aug    45    Minor storm 
26 Aug    25    active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 22 August and 
is current for interval 24-25 August. Active conditions possibly 
building to minor storms expected today in response to CME impact 
and likely to continue on to the 25th of August. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Poor           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 22 08 2005 2100UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Aug      Fair           Fair           Poor(PCA)
25 Aug      Fair           Fair-Poor      Poor
26 Aug      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Potential for further SWF over the next 24 hours is 
moderate. The Polar Cap Absorption event in progress is expected 
to continue in the high latitude regions today in response to 
the solar proton event. CME shock is expect to arrive later in 
the day and may degrade HF communications. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Aug    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Aug    25    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
25 Aug    20    depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
26 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 23 August 
and is current for interval 24-25 August. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Aug
Speed: 512 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:   152000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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