[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 05

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 3 09:53:20 EST 2005


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z AUGUST 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.2    1831UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Aug             04 Aug             05 Aug
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: The most significant event of the past UT day was a 
relatively short-duration M4 level flare from AR794 at 1831UT. 
A Type II radio sweep was reported at 1824UT with an estimated 
shock velocity of 2528 km/s. A minor Forbush Decrease of 2% was 
observed on the Mawson CosRay monitor at 02/21UT, indicating 
a probable Earth-directed CME component. Region 794 also produced 
a C2.9 level flare at 0746UT and may have been the source of 
a C8.7 level flare at 1245UT. This region has shown growth over 
the past 24 hours. Region 792 produced a C6.7 level flare at 
2016UT and has shown some decay over the past UT day. A disappearing 
solar filament was reported at N24W67 at 1048UT. Solar wind remains 
slightly elevated but relatively steady at about 480 km/s. Solar 
energetic ion fluxes decreased significantly after 10UT. Regions 
792 and 794 have potential for further M-class flare activity. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 02 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   2224 3211
      Learmonth            8   2213 3211
      Culgoora             9   2124 3212
      Canberra             9   2214 3111
      Hobart               9   2224 3111
      Casey(Ant)          11   3--3 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              43   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             16   4134 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Aug     6    Quiet 
04 Aug    15    Unsettled to Active 
05 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Minor storm geomagnetic conditions have persisted at 
polar latitudes into the first half of the UT day. At lower latitudes, 
a brief active period was observed around 10UT. Otherwise 
conditions were unsettled, tending to quiet later in the UT day. 
Recent solar activity indicates a possible minor shock arrival, 
possibly multiple arrivals, sometime on day two. Expect mostly 
quiet conditions on day one, possible minor to major storm periods 
mainly at high latitudes on day two, declining to unsettled conditions 
on day three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : Began at 2325UT 27/07, Ended at 1105UT 01/08
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions prevail at low to mid latitudes. 
The proton event which had been in progress since 27/2325 ended 
at 01/1105. Expect normal conditions at low to mid latitudes 
with some continuing disturbance at high latitudes due to geomagnetic 
activity associated with recent solar activity. Possible extended 
periods of degradation at high latitudes on day two due to anticipated 
minor geomagnetic shock arrival. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Aug    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day, with localised
      intervals of disturbance. 

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  26

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Aug    55    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
04 Aug    40    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Aug    55    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to mildly enhanced HF conditions observed 
Equatorial/Aus regions. Periods of evening spread-F observed 
S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. Minor daytime absorption persisting 
at polar cap latitudes. Expect periods of degradation S Aus/NZ/Antarctic 
regions on day two due to geomagnetic activity associated with 
an anticipated minor solar wind shock. Isolated radio fadeouts 
possible during local day over the next week due to active sunspot 
regions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 568 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   186000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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