[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Apr             29 Apr             30 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Despite significant growth in region 756, solar activity 
was low over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed declined from 
around 400 km/sec to around 380km/sec over the past 24 hours. 
The north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
remained around neutral. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1110 1000
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Culgoora             0   1000 1001
      Canberra             0   1000 1000
      Hobart               0   1000 1000
      Casey(Ant)           4   2221 1100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1011 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Apr    12    Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods. 
29 Apr     4    Quiet 
30 Apr     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence patterns suggest quiet conditions 
next few days. However, recent minor solar activity may produce 
unsettled with the chance for isolated active conditions on 28 
Apr. Learmonth data unavailable due to comms problem. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Apr    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Apr    30    near predicted monthly values 
29 Apr    30    near predicted monthly values 
30 Apr    30    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 440 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    77000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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