[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 05

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Apr             28 Apr             29 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar region 756 produced a long duration low level 
flare from 0429 to 0608UT, visible in Culgoora H-alpha imagery. 
This flare was located very far east and no radio sweeps were 
observed at the time of the flare. LASCO C3 showed a faint southern 
solar hemisphere CME starting around 0142UT, presumably a far-side 
event, as no radio or on disk activity was observed around this 
time. Solar region 756 is now at S06E55 and may produce further 
flares, just east of the dark leader spot. A solar filament was 
reported to have disappeared from the eastern solar hemisphere 
on 25 Apr. Solar wind conditions nominal over past 24 hours, 
declining from 480 to 380km/sec. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1111 0011
      Learmonth            3   1--- ----
      Culgoora             1   1110 0011
      Canberra             1   1110 0002
      Hobart               1   1111 0001
      Casey(Ant)           4   2221 1021
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3432 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Apr     6    Quiet 
28 Apr    12    Unsettled chance active 
29 Apr     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence patterns suggest quiet conditions 
next few days. However, recent minor solar activity may produce 
unsettled with the chance for isolated active conditions on 28 
Apr. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions. Mild degradation possible 
28 Apr at high latitudes only. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Apr    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values 
29 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 521 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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