[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Apr             24 Apr             25 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27

A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1415UT 
on 22 Apr. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 22 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2210 3221
      Learmonth            6   2210 3121
      Culgoora             3   2100 2121
      Canberra             5   1200 3222
      Hobart               5   1110 3221
      Casey(Ant)           9   2331 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2011 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Apr    18    active 
24 Apr    19    active 
25 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
24 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Apr    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     No data available during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 25% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Apr    15    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
25 Apr    15    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 487 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   194000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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