[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 05

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr:  77/16


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Apr             23 Apr             24 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind speed decreased from 500 to 400km/sec. The 
north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field was 
mostly northward over the UT day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1111 0100
      Learmonth            3   1111 1110
      Culgoora             0   1100 0000
      Canberra             1   1100 0100
      Hobart               1   1110 0100
      Casey(Ant)           6   2-32 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             21   2544 4322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Apr    14    Mostly unsettled, active periods possible. 
23 Apr    12    Unsettled 
24 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Chancw for isolated active periods, with a general decline 
to quiet conditions. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Apr    35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Apr    30    near predicted monthly values 
23 Apr    30    near predicted monthly values 
24 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 526 km/sec  Density:    6.9 p/cc  Temp:   224000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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