[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 05
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 12 09:13:05 EST 2005
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: It appears that th Earth enterd the anticipated coronal
hole wind stream at around 16UT on 11 Apr, afterwhich wind speed
increased from 360 to 440km/sec, and the north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field became mildy southward.
Elevated solar wind speed conditions expected next 24 hours.
The Sun has been predomiately flare quiet of the past 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 1211 1133
Learmonth 6 2201 1234
Culgoora 4 1101 1133
Canberra 5 1201 1233
Hobart 4 1201 1133
Casey(Ant) 7 2331 1123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr :
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Culgoora NA
Canberra NA
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1001 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 18 active
13 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
14 Apr 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 10 April and
is current for interval 11-12 April. Forecast active conditions
for 11 Apr did not eventuate. However, active periods remain
expected today and possibly extending into 13 Apr as the Earth
has entered a coronal hole wind stream, later than expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
13 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions forecast for mid to
high latitudes, has yet to eventuate. Coronal hole induced activity
remains possible over next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Range spread observed 12-15UT at Vanimo.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 29
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 40 near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
14 Apr 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 18 was issued on 10 April
and is current for interval 12-13 April. Good HF communication
conditions now expected for today. Forecast mild depressions
for southern Aus/NZ region now appearing less likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 345 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 54200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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