[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 05

[Regional Warning Centre]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2005 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Apr             11 Apr             12 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1111 1001
      Learmonth            3   2012 2001
      Culgoora             0   0000 1001
      Canberra             0   0001 1000
      Hobart               0   0100 1000
      Casey(Ant)           5   2222 2111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2011 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Apr    12    Unsettled 
11 Apr    16    active 
12 Apr    22    active 
COMMENT: Disturbed geomagnetic conditions expected during the 
forecast period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
12 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Apr    42

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     No data available during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  29

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Apr    15    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+08 (high fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    31500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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