[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 September 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 20 09:56:24 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    1712UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Sep             21 Sep             22 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              90/34
COMMENT: Analysis of CME activity in association with the M2-flare 
observed on 19 September was not possible due to lack of LASCO 
imagery, however ground based observations suggest a CME will 
impact the Earth during 22 September. Solar region 673 has a 
small chance of producing further M-class flare activity. Solar 
wind speeds continued to decline over the past 24 hours, down 
to less than 400 km/s. 



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1121 1113
      Darwin               4   2121 1113
      Townsville           4   2021 1123
      Learmonth            1   1010 0113
      Culgoora             2   1111 1012
      Canberra             1   1010 0012
      Hobart               1   1010 0012
      Casey(Ant)           5   1231 1113
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              14   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             16   5513 3212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Sep     6    Quiet 
22 Sep    25    Unsettled to active with the chance of storm 
                periods. 
COMMENT: The coronal hole solar wind stream has continued to 
abate over the past 24 hours and conditions have returned to 
quiet to unsettled levels. Conditions are expected to remain 
mostly quiet to unsettled for 20-21 September. A CME associated 
with the M2-flare observed on 19 September is expected to impact 
the Earth on 22 September, with storm levels expected to follow. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-poor(PCA)    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 19 09 2004 1950UT and is in progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)          
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
22 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Conditions should be mostly normal for 20-21 September 
for mid-low latitudes, with poor HF conditions for high latitudes 
for 20 September due to a PCA event currently in progress. Fair-poor 
conditions are expected during 22 September for mid-high latitudes 
due to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Sep    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Sep    50    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
21 Sep    50    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
22 Sep    40    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Conditions should be mostly normal for 20-21 September 
for mid-low latitudes, with poor HF conditions for high latitudes 
for 20 September due to a PCA event currently in progress. Fair-poor 
conditions are expected during 22 September for mid-high latitudes 
due to anticipated elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.80E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 433 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:    31700 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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