[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 September 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Sep             20 Sep             21 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              95/41
COMMENT: Solar regions 672 and 673 have the possibility of producing 
C-class flare activity. Solar wind speeds continued to decline 
over the past 24 hours, ranging from approximately 500km/s down 
to 400 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decline 
over the next 24 hours. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   3323 2102
      Darwin               7   3222 2112
      Townsville           8   3323 2102
      Learmonth            8   3313 2102
      Culgoora             7   3223 2001
      Canberra             7   3223 2102
      Hobart               7   3223 2002
      Casey(Ant)          11   34-3 2012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 SEP : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20   5443 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Sep    12    Unsettled 
20 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Sep     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: The coronal hole solar wind stream is abating and conditions 
are returning to unsettled to quiet. Conditions should be mostly 
unsettled to quiet for 19-21 September. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Conditions should be mostly normal for all latitudes 
for 19-21 September. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Sep    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Mostly near predicted monthly values at all stations.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Sep    50    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
20 Sep    50    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
21 Sep    50    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Conditions should be mostly normal for all regions for 
19-21 September. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 499 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:    78200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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