[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 September 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 17 09:52:16 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Sep 18 Sep 19 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar regions 672 and 673 have the possibility of producing
isolated M-class flare activity. Solar wind speeds have continued
to remain mildly elevated over the past 24 hours ranging from
approximately 580km/s down to 500 km/s. Solar wind speeds are
expected to decline slowly over the next 24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A K
Australian Region 17 3324 4333
Darwin 13 2223 4333
Townsville 15 2224 4333
Learmonth 15 3214 4333
Culgoora 18 3334 4333
Canberra 17 2334 4333
Hobart 16 2334 4322
Casey(Ant) 24 4--4 4343
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 57 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 4323 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Sep 16 Unsettled, chance active periods.
18 Sep 12 Quiet to unsettled
19 Sep 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 25 was issued on 16 September
and is current for interval 17 September only. The Earth is presently
under the influence of a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream
which is expected to result in isolated active periods for 17
September. Conditions should be mostly unsettled to quiet for
18-19 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : Began at 2115UT 13/09, Ended at 0620UT 15/09
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Overnight pre-midnight enhancements observed again at
low latitudes for 16 Sept, followed by post-dawn depressions.
Possible local post-dawn depressions again for low latitudes
for 17 September, with conditions returning to mostly normal
for all regions for 18-19 Sepember.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Sep 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 55% during local night,
Depressed 15-30% following local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 38
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Sep 45 near predicted monthly values
18 Sep 45 near predicted monthly values
19 Sep 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Overnight pre-midnight enhancements observed again at
equatorial latitudes for 16 Sept, followed by post-dawn depressions.
Possible local post-dawn depressions again for equatorial latitudes
for 17 September, with conditions returning to mostly normal
for all regions for 18-19 Sepember.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 553 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 129000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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