[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 16 09:54:32 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Sep             17 Sep             18 Sep
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Region 672 which is now centre disc, produced several 
high B and low C class flares in the last 24 hours. Newly named 
Region 673 produced one mid B class flare. A glancing blow from 
the CME of 14th Sept is still possible during 16th Sept. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   3222 3324
      Darwin              10   3222 3324
      Townsville           7   2221 3224
      Learmonth            9   3221 3324
      Culgoora             8   2222 2323
      Canberra            10   3222 3324
      Hobart               9   3222 2323
      Casey(Ant)          15   4442 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 SEP : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           18   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            95   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              99   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             28   4445 4344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Sep    25    active 
17 Sep    20    active 
18 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 24 was issued on 13 September 
and is current for interval 14-16 September. Following the shock 
arrival late in the UT day Sep 13, active intervals have been 
observed at high latitudes. Solar wind density has been slightly 
above average, temperature is average, and velocity is slightly 
elevated at 550km/sec. IMF Bz is oscillating within 5nT of zero 
although total field values above 5nT suggests a significant 
By component enhancing reconnection with the geomagnetic field. 
There is a possibility of a shock passage on 16th Sept from a 
CME observed early in the UT day Sep 14. This passage is likely 
to be a glancing blow, resulting in disturbed conditions for 
about one day, with conditions declining to mostly unsettled 
later on day two. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Poor-fair      
PCA Event : Began at 2115UT 13/09, Ended at 0620UT 15/09
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
17 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Overnight pre-midnight enhancements observed again at 
low latitudes, followed by post-dawn depressions. Proton-PCA 
event at high latitudes ended around 0630UT and ionogram returns 
reappeared in the second half of the day. Possibility of a further 
minor shock arrival today resulting in continuing HF disturbances 
at high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Sep    45

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  38

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Sep    45    near predicted monthly values 
17 Sep    40    near predicted monthly values 
18 Sep    40    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Overnight enhancements observed again in Equatorial/N 
Aus region. Normal HF conditions observed at mid latitudes despite 
declining geomagnetic disturbance following the solar wind shock 
arrival late on Sep 13. The proton-PCA event at high latitudes 
has ended although recovery of the ionosphere is still in progress 
and conditions may remain poor if the minor shock arrival takes 
effect today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  8.5E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 576 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:   209000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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