[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 25 09:54:55 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 2028UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds increased during the past 24 hours
up to approximately 500km/s. The most likely source of this disturbance
is the tail end of a coronal hole solar wind stream. Solar wind
speeds are expected to decline slowly over the next day or two.
Recent CME activity appearing to originate from solar region
687 does not appear to be Earthward directed and is not expected
to be geoeffective. Solar region 687 has the chance of producing
further M-class flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 2211 2333
Darwin 8 2212 2333
Townsville 8 2212 2333
Learmonth 8 2211 2333
Culgoora 8 1211 1343
Canberra 8 1211 1343
Hobart 10 1321 1342
Casey(Ant) 9 ---2 2233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 0011 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 12 Mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated active
periods possible.
26 Oct 8 Quiet to unsettled
27 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Elevated solar wind speeds and a period of southward
IMF resulted in isolated active periods during 24 October. Mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods are
expected for the next days. CMEs observed over the last few days
are not expected to be geoeffective.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal too good HF conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct 60 5 to 10% above predicted monthly values
26 Oct 65 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Oct 65 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 378 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 39700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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