[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 04

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct:  Low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 130/NA 


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Oct             25 Oct             26 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/NA             130/NA            130/NA 
COMMENT: Recent CME activity appearing to originate from solar 
rgion 687 does not appear to be Earthward directed and is not 
expected to be geoeffective. Solar region 687 has the chance 
of producing further M-class flare activity. Solar wind speeds 
have been between 340 km/s to 400km/s during 23 October and are 
expected to mostly remain below 400km/s over the next few days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1101 1112
      Darwin               2   1111 0112
      Townsville           2   1101 1113
      Learmonth            1   1101 0102
      Culgoora             2   1101 1112
      Canberra             3   2101 1112
      Hobart               2   0111 1112
      Casey(Ant)           6   3--2 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   NA


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Oct     6    Quiet 
25 Oct     6    Quiet 
26 Oct     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 
the next days. CMEs observed over the last few days are not expected 
to be geoeffective. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal too good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Oct    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Oct    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
25 Oct    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
26 Oct    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal to good HF conditions are expected for 
the next few days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:    NA
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:   NA
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV:  NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background:  NA

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 402 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:    63100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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