[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 17 09:37:22 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct:  92/37

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Oct             18 Oct             19 Oct
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 
24 hours. No significant activity was recorded today. The 
solar wind speed gradually decreased from 460 km/s to 
330 km/s (approx.) during the UT day. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed 
minor fluctuations on both sides of the normal value until 
0400UT and then remained mostly slightly positive during 
the rest of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain 
at very low to low levels during the next three days. Region 
682(S14E23) holds potential for isolated C-class activity. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Mostly quiet. 

Estimated Indices 16 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1111 1011
      Darwin               3   1111 12--
      Townsville           3   2111 1012
      Learmonth            1   1001 1002
      Culgoora             2   1110 1011
      Canberra             3   1211 101-
      Hobart               2   1211 1001
      Casey(Ant)           5   2322 0001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 OCT : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            NA
      Hobart              20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   2313 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Oct     8    Mostly quiet. 
18 Oct     8    Mostly quiet. 
19 Oct     8    Mostly quiet. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
at most locations during the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Oct    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted montly values during local day.
      Depressed 30 % to near predicted monthly vlues
      during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with periods
      of depressions and degradations. 


Predicted Monthly T index for October:  30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Oct    45    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%. 
18 Oct    45    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%. 
19 Oct    45    Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%. 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 493 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    93300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list