[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 17 09:37:22 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last
24 hours. No significant activity was recorded today. The
solar wind speed gradually decreased from 460 km/s to
330 km/s (approx.) during the UT day. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed
minor fluctuations on both sides of the normal value until
0400UT and then remained mostly slightly positive during
the rest of the UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low to low levels during the next three days. Region
682(S14E23) holds potential for isolated C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Mostly quiet.
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 1111 1011
Darwin 3 1111 12--
Townsville 3 2111 1012
Learmonth 1 1001 1002
Culgoora 2 1110 1011
Canberra 3 1211 101-
Hobart 2 1211 1001
Casey(Ant) 5 2322 0001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 OCT :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra NA
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 2313 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 8 Mostly quiet.
18 Oct 8 Mostly quiet.
19 Oct 8 Mostly quiet.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels during the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
18 Oct Normal Normal Normal
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
at most locations during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted montly values during local day.
Depressed 30 % to near predicted monthly vlues
during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day with periods
of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 45 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
18 Oct 45 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
19 Oct 45 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced 5%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in Aus/NZ regions during the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 93300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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